Displaced Persons: The Global Context

Original Editor - Naomi O'Reilly

Top Contributors - Naomi O'Reilly, Jess Bell, Carin Hunter and Jorge Rodríguez Palomino  

Introduction

People have always moved for a wide range of reasons, including war and conflict, insecurity, disasters, poverty, and to find work and seek a better life for themselves and their families.  But more people are now on the move than ever before in our history with migration increasing every year over the last two decades,, although at a reduced rate in the past two years due to COVID-19.

If we look at migration within the broader context of movement of people, including all forms of migration both by choice, necessity and forced, at the end of 2021 over 281 million people were living in a country other than their country of birth, over three times that number estimated in 1970, which only account for 3.6% of the global population, meaning only 1 in 30 people are migrants. Of that number 135 million female and 146 million males were international migrants and 169 million considered labour migrants. The number of all international migrants has increased in all regions, but to a greater degree in Europe and Asia with 86.7million and 85.6million respectively. The proportion of international migrants in each country varies hugely around the world, with some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, with greater number of international migrants (88%). The largest corridors for movement of migrants tend to be from developing countries to larger economies, such as those of the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Germany; while other large corridors reflect protracted conflict and related displacement, such as from the Syrian Arab Republic to Turkey, which is the second largest migrant corridor in the world.The following table highlights ket World Migration Reports 2000 and 2022.

Table.1 Key facts and figures from World Migration Reports 2000 and 2022 (Refugee and IDP Data for 2022 taken from UNHCR & IDMC)

	2000	2022
Estimated Number of International Migrants	173 million	281 million
Estimated Proportion of World Population who are Migrants	2.8%	3.6%
Estimated Proportion of Female International Migrants	49.4%	48%
Estimated Proportion of International Migrants who are Children	16%	14.6%
Region with Highest Proportion of International Migrants	Oceania	Oceania
Country with Highest Proportion of International Migrants	United Arab Emirates	United Arab Emirates
Number of Migrant Workers	-	169 million
Number of Refugees	14 million	27.1 million (UNHCR Data)
Number of Internally Displaced Persons	21 million	59.1 million (IDMC Data)

Now that we have looked at the broader data around migration as a whole lets explore in more detail displacement and the movement of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalised violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters.

Global Forced Displacement Trends

The total number of people worldwide who were forced to flee their homes due to conflicts, violence, fear of persecution and human rights violations at the end of 2021 was 89.3 million, which is the most since World War II and more than double the 42.7 million people who remained forcibly displaced a decade ago, with current estimates suggesting that will continue to rise to over 100 million people in 2022. This means that 1 in 88 people, or 1%of the worlds population are displaced, which is just slightly less than a third of all migrants.

When we break down this number the greatest percentage of persons displaced are internally displaced at 53.2 million, followed by 27.1 million refugees, 4.6 million asylum seekers and 4.4 million Venezuelans displaced abroad with almost equal numbers of male (51%) and female (49%). Children on the other hand proportionally account for a greater percentage of those displaced accounting for 41% of displacement, despite only accounting for 30% of the world's population.We will explore each of these different groups in more details below but as we can see the overall trend for all groups have seen an increase year on year generally over the last decade. (Figure.1)

Figure.1 UNHCR Global Trends 2021 - Figures at a Glance

Figure.2 UNHCR Map of New Displacement in 2021

Internally Displaced Persons

Internal displacement, are "persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalised violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognised state border."   and currently 38 million people across 141 countries and territories were internally displaced in 2021 as a result of conflict, violence and disasters, which is the second highest annual figure in a decade. Conflict and violence alone showed an increase of almost 50% from the previous year to 14.4million, with this expected to rise further in 2022 due to the onset of the conflict in Ukraine (Map.1).

This meant that at the end of 2021 there were a total of 59.1million people living in internal displacement with 53.2million people in 59 countries a result of conflict and violence ((Map.2) )and 5.9 million people in 84 countries due to disasters (Map.3). Children and youth under 18 year account for almost half of all those internally displaced at 25.2 million, with that number rising to 33 million across 104 countries if we account for all those aged 0 - 25 years.

Map.1 Number of new Internal Displacements by Conflict and Disasters in 2021

Map.2 Total Number of Internal Displacement by Conflict and Violence in 2021

Map.3 Total Number of Internal Displacement by Disasters in 2021

Chilna, Phillipines, Ethiopia, India and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are the top five countries with the greatest number of internal displacement , with China the greatest number of internally displaced persons as a result of disaster and Ethiopia the greatest number of internally displaced persons as a result of conflict and violence. (Table.1)

If we break that down regionally, at the end of 2021 Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the largest numbers of internally displaced persons as a result of conflict and violence at 11.6million, which increased by 4.7 million driven mostly by the cnoflict in Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Burkina Faso, Somalia and the Central African Republic (CAR), although we will expect to see significant changes to this data in 2022 as a result of the conflict in Ukraine with current estimates of over 7.1 million people internally displaced following ION General Population Survey between 17 - 23 May 2022. East Asia and Pacific account for the largest number of internally displaced persons as a result of disaster at 13.7million, resulting predominately from tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and floods with China, the Philippines and India most affected.

Table.1 Top Five Countries with Most Internal Displacements

Country	Disaster	Conflict and Violence
Chima	6,037,000	0
Phillipines	5,681,000	140,000
Ethiopia	240,000	5,142,000
India	4,903,000	13,000
DR Congo	2,712,000	888,000

Table.2 Regional Internal Displacement Figures

Country	Disaster	Conflict and Violnce
Sub-Saharan Africa	2.6 million	11.6 million
Middle East and North Africa	233,000	1 million
East Asia and Pacific	13.7 million	626,000
South Asia	5.3 million	736,000
Americas	1.7 million	381,000
Europe and Central Asia	276,000	61,000

Asylum Seekers

Asylum seekers are people that have applied for asylum or the right to be recognised as a refugee and receive legal protection and material assistance but have not yet had their claim fully assessed. At the end of 2021 there were 4.6 million persons awaiting a decision on asylum.

Human Trafficking

Human trafficking is both complex and dynamic and while the range of contexts is increasing, it can often be difficult to detect. According to the Counter-Trafficking Data Collaborative, the first global data hub on human trafficking launched in 2017, there are 156,330 individual cases of trafficking globally across 189 countries affecting 187 nationalities.

Figure. Global Data on Human Trafficking (Source: Counter-Trafficking Data Collaborative (CTDC), June 2022).

Historically, most identified victims of trafficking are female, with girls accounting for 24% and women 57% of those trafficked in 2018 all though over time a higher percentage of male victims of trafficking are now being identified. A higher percentage of females trafficked are aged between 18 - 20 years, while in males the highest percentage are found in the youngest age group 0 - 8years and in those above 39 years. The average age of trafficking is 27 years, with half of all victims aged between 19 and 33 years, with a slight spike seen between 0 - 1 years as a result of children born into trafficking. Around 20% of all identified victims of trafficking are children, with a third of those entering into trafficking between the ages of 15 - 17 years.

Males who were trafficked are more often recruited into trafficking by an acquaintance while over a quarter of females were recruited by an intimate partner, and a further third by a family member of relative. While in children over 40% were recruited by a family member or relative in comparison to just 9% of adults.Abduction accounts for just 3% of victims of trafficking, with 78% of those female with the typical victim female aged 15 - 30 years and abducted outside of her circle of friends or fsmily, and controlled by physical abuse.

Sexual and labour exploitation are the two most common reasons for trafficking, with a higher percentage of females exploited for sexual exploitation in comparison to males, and increasing numbers of children exploited for sex with increasing numbers of children aged 9 - 17 years trafficked for sexual exploitation. When we look at the means of control used by traffickers, in sexual exploitation psychological abuse is more commonly used, while in labour exploitation taking earnings is the main method of control. Children are controlled more through psychological abuse, restriction of movement, physical abuse, threats, promises and psychoactive substances, while in adults restriction of movement and psychological abuse were the most common means followed equally by false promises, threats and taking earnings.

Over 80% of international human trafficking journeys in the last decade have crossed through official border control points, such as airports and land border control points, with female victims (84%) are more likely to be trafficked through an official border control point than male victims (73%), and children much less likely (56%).Labour force exploitation more commonly pass through official border points (83%) with construction sector making up almost half of this group (43%), while a much smaller number of those who are trafficked for sexual exploitation (15%).

In Europe the majority of victims of trafficking are adults with a slightly higher proportion trafficked for labour exploitation over sexual exploitation. In the Americas over 80% are females, with a third of those children, with two thirds of all those trafficked exploited for sex. In Asia labour exploitation, particularly into domestic work is the most common form of trafficking, while in Africa ther are almost equal proportions of male and female, although more than half are children.

Climate Migrants

With millions of people displaced, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that human migration could be one of the greatest single impacts of climate change. Why do we talk about climate migrants and not about climate refugees ? On one hand, refugee is clearly defined in the International Law as “a person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country”. On another hand, the International Organization for Migration defined climate migrants as “persons or groups of persons, who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or chose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad”.

There are multiple reasons why people need to move due to climate issues: temperatures, sea levels, accessibility to clean water or food, extreme weather events, disasters and many more. The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) noted that “80% of the world’s displaced people are in countries affected by acute food insecurity”. Every country is at risk of climate migration. There is major risk for countries with a lack of capacity adaption when it comes to access to resources and for countries with higher exposure to hazardous events. In general, low and middle income countries are at higher risk.

Figure. Climate Related Displacement Events

Climate migration due to an environmental issue like sea level rise are rare. People are directly pushed to move due to climate only during extreme weather events. In other cases, there is on association between climate condition and social and economic issues. It is a long and subtle modification in people's lives. It’s hard to put a number on how many people are moving due to environmental conditions. The UNHRC has data about global migration and estimates 89.3 million people worldwide to be forcibly displaced in 2021 with estimates of over 100million in 2022, and estimate around 21.5 million people each year since 2008 due to climate change. It is hard to evaluate how many people will be affected by climate change and how many will have to migrate due to environmental situations. The impact of climate change on forced migration will depend on “the quantity of future greenhouse gas emissions, the rate of future population growth and distribution, the meteorological evolution of climate change, the effectiveness of local and national adaptation strategies”. However, 200 million by 2050 is an accepted figure. Nevertheless it is important to realise that climate migrants are not always crossing borders, but more commonly occurs within their own countries before migration leads to another country.

When we talk about internal displacement, internal climate migration could reach 143 million by 2050, in only 3 regions of the world (Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America). This number is based on the worst scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the best scenarios, this number could drop to 65 million. Furthermore, internal climate migration might accelerate after 2050 “due to stronger climate impacts combined with steep population growth in many regions.” . Internal and International climate migration might create hotspots of climate-induced migration. Those hotspots apply to in- and out- migration. Hotspots are a real concern for government and countries development.

Some common trends seems to emerge regarding the magnitude, scale, and direction of climate migration:

• Internal climate migration will increase under all climate scenarios.
• The more inclusive development scenario projected a decrease in climate migration, down to 38 million lower than under the pessimistic one. The biggest decreases will be in South Asia (16.4 million) and Sub-Saharan Africa (21 million).
• “The fewest internal climate migrants are projected under the more climate-friendly scenario: 28.3 million in Sub-Saharan Africa, 16.9 million in South Asia, and 5.8 million in Latin America.” (IOM)

Evolution shows us that climate migration is very intertwined with a country’s development context. Climate migration will tend to be higher in countries with high population growth, economic inequality, high urbanisation, and lower access to education for their population. Under a climate-friendly scenario the average number of climate migrants is cut by at least half by 2050 and this is for every region.

Resources

Internal Displacement

1. Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)
   • The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) is the world's definitive source of data and analysis on internal displacement. Since our establishment in 1998 as part of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), we have offered a rigorous, independent and trusted service to the international community. Our work informs policy and operational decisions that improve the lives of the millions of people living in internal displacement, or at risk of becoming displaced in the future.
2. Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD)
   • The GIDD enables you to explore, filter and sort our data to produce your own graphs and tables which you can export in several different formats. You can also access and export the data used to generate these visualisations.
3. The Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) 2022
   • IDMC's Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) is the world’s leading source of data and analysis on internal displacement. This year's edition includes a special focus on internally displaced children and youth.

Climate Migration

1. Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence
   • The purpose of this book is to suggest concrete ways in, which the international community can begin to address the huge gaps in our knowledge relating to the likely impact of climate change on migration. The book does this by taking stock of the existing evidence on the effects of climate change and environmental degradation on migration, providing a comprehensive overview of the findings of recent research studies. Throughout, our focus is centred on how research can best inform policy and provide the evidence which decision-makers will need in the future to plan for and respond to environmentally induced migration.
2. Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration
   • This report brings a much-needed focus to the nexus between climate change, migration and development in three regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Its startling conclusion is that they may have to cope with more than 143 million internal climate migrants by 2050 unless concerted action is taken at the national and global levels.